Within the deSide display there are 5 tabs included to provide a visibility of how much the AEMO’s short-term (i.e. “P5 predispatch”) forecasts are tending to be – one tab for each region. The way each tab functions is identical – they have just been pointed at price data (actuals and forecast) for each region.
This display is a view of how the P5 forecasts have varied over time – highlighting, in particular, if they are converging well on actuals:
The colour-coding of the cells certainly helps making this very clear, in this instance – simply view from the other side of the room to assure yourself that prices are not moving around very much, and are down the blue end of the colour scale (in the above instance).
Reading down a column, you will be able to easily see how successive predispatch forecasts have varied, converging on actual prices highlighted at the bottom of each column (for times passed).
At times of volatility, this screen will be useful for our clients in understanding the extent to which price spikes are certain:
Volatility Scenario #1 = if successive forecasts are relatively steady, and high, then a higher probability could be ascribed to the forecast actually coming to fruition.
For instance, here’s another snapshot of another time and another region – one with every cell being red:
In this case (if red is your trigger price) you can be very confident the price will continue to be high in the near term.
Volatility Scenario #2 = in contrast, the following colourful distribution provides you a notice to beware, as prices appear likely to jump around a fair bit in the near term
Don’t forget that, in real time, you can see a broader context for the region on the region-specific view.
There is some ability provided to customise the colour scaling in your displays (and configure your database connections and so on).