Three potential tripwires looming – with interpretation of AEMO data from 5MS and the WDRM

On Thursday 10th June 2021 over on WattClarity we posted this warning about ‘Three potential tripwires looming in October 2021, for those who are not wary’.

These tripwires are emerging out of the two major changes that the market is encountering in June 2021:

Change 1 =  Five Minute Settlement (5MS) (starting on 1st October 2021)

Change 2 = The commencement of the Wholesale Demand Response Mechanism (WDRM – i.e. the ‘Negawatt Dispatch Mechanism’) that begins on Sunday 24th October 2021.

Click through to the summary of these tripwires, or to the specific articles below … but note that Tripwire #1 and Tripwire #2 are particularly relevant to spot exposed energy users operating our deSide software:

# Description of the Issue
Potential Tripwire #1
Only 1 out of every 6 (5-min) Trading Prices is visible in P30 Predispatch!

In the article ‘Potential Tripwire #1 = the ‘invisible’ 5-minute Trading Periods?!’ on 10th June 2021 we explained what we meant by 5 out of 6 (5-min) Trading Prices being invisible in P30 Predispatch.

Potential Tripwire #2
The P30 forecast (for every 6th (5-min) Trading Price) may not so accurate at times of volatility.

In the article ‘P30 Predispatch forecasts after 5-minute settlement–what do they mean?’ on 11th June we noted how the forecasts published for that 6th Trading Period in the half hour might not be so accurateespecially:
(a)  When things are changing rapidly (e.g. morning and evening ramps in Underlying Demand and Solar Harvest … but perhaps not at exactly the same time); and
(b)  Hence higher likelihood of volatility (like in Q2 2021, for instance); and
(c)  Hence likely to be of high interest.

Potential Tripwire #3
Don’t make this big mistake (from October 2021) in analysing Bidding Behaviour!

In the article ‘Potential Tripwire #3 = When is a load not a load?’ on 18th June we explained how the way in which Negawatts (from the WDRM) are being stored in the MMS (i.e. AEMO’s Database) will make it quite likely that analysts will make errors in the analysis of bidding behaviour after the new category goes live.

This one is not so relevant to deSide for energy users, but useful to still keep in mind in reading analysis of bidding behaviour!


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